I'm looking at a long term follow-up project and in the sample size consideration section it is described as such:
The total person-years of follow-up is approximately 9045 for the 1500 enrolled patients. This number of person-years of follow-up will provide 91% likelihood of seeing at least one event of interest, if the true rate per 15 years of exposure is at least 1:250.
I don't understand how the 91% likelihood is calculated. Can someone please explain?
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