What would be the probability of "breaking the bank" in this 1985 Blackjack game? (Details in body)

The game I'm talking about is the Game and Watch title Blackjack. In this version of the card game, the game ends when the player either loses all their money, or wins more than the max wallet amount ($9,999). I want to figure out the possibility that a player reaches this max score (without losing of course) in the first place, as well as how many hands it would typically take the a player to reach said max.

Here are the attributes of this version to keep in mind:

-It's a 1v1 between you and the dealer
-Maximum bet is 100 (though doubling is allowed, for a true max of 200)
-You start with 500
-Game pays 1:1
-Game consists of 1 deck
-Deck is reshuffled after the first hand in which a total of at least 12 cards have been drawn
-Dealer Peaks at hole card
-Dealer Stands on Soft 17
-Double Down allowed with any two cards
-If a player gets a Blackjack, and the dealer also has 21, then the player wins, but only gets half the bet
-A tie in any other instance leads to no money lost nor gained
-Surrender not allowed
-Insurance not allowed
-Splitting not allowed

That last point is the big one, as it seems every Blackjack odd calculator assumes splitting is allowed. Being an old LCD game, they did not program splitting in, which makes this all a bit complicated. I'm interested in Basic Strategy mostly, but card counting and all that would be good to know too.

All in all, I'm very grateful for anyone who decides to help me with this, as it's for a video project I'm working on. I'll give credit to anyone who helps of course.

  • Erdos Erdos

    It would probably take over two hours to answer this. You should offer a much hifher bounty.

  • Hello Austin T, I will answer it as soon as possible!

    • Thank you, please take your time :)

  • https://aromatic-postage-4ec.notion.site/What-would-be-the-probability-of-breaking-the-bank-in-this-1985-Blackjack-game-c82908c9d0284cefab75b5cf34656dd8?pvs=4

  • The link above is the Workspace where I am answering

  • Fell Free to ask any feedback

    • Thank you very much! I think this will be really helpful. Do I have permission to share this around? And in terms of credit, is "Mr. Nicolas Santana" okay?

    • Hey Nicolas, I noticed in the file that the lines of the code get cut off by the page. Is there anyway you could reupload it to where it's all visible? Thank you~

  • Yeah that fine

  • If you click in the underlined “project” it will send you to the project where you're able to copy and edit.


The answer is accepted.
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