# Can we consider the field of futures probabilities as a chaotic system ?

We illustrate the field of futures probabilities using the concept of the “cone of plausibility”:

https://studentsatthecenterhub.org/resource/tool-exploring-plausible-probable-possible-preferred-futures/

Suppose that for any time value ** tn** in this projected cone we had a value

**y1**and a value

**y2**to define the upper and the lower limits of plausibility — or extremum of the bidimensional cone slice for the time value

*— see the graph: https://www.aam-us.org/2011/09/16/futurist-friday-exploring-the-cone-of-plausibility/*

**tn**Also, we can define a mean for each value of time

Which would expressed on the graphs by the default vector of time.

*:***tn****M = (y1+y2)/2**Which would expressed on the graphs by the default vector of time.

- Having defined a bounded space, could we consider the field of future probabilities — included between
**y1**and**y2**in the cone of plausibility atand observable from**tn**— as a chaotic system ?**t0** - If it can be considered as so, would it be a linear or a nonlinear system ?
- If it can be considered as so, could we call
**M**for the time valuean attractor ? A global attractor ? Something else ?**tn** - Finally, if it can be considered as so and if you had to express your mathematician's point of view, would such a system have any interest, be practical, or useful ?

Raoli

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I got a message saying 'Page not found' from both links.

My bad, I corrected it but the hyperlinks are down now. Thank for the notification

0. y_1 and y_2 are not really well defined. The cone is a didactic representation to explain a concept, but there is no way to define a boundary for the possibilities or the 'extremum' of all possibilities. 1. Barring my previous comment, you could choose to model it as such. Modeling is always a choice, I'm afraid. 2. You choose. 3. Depends on the equations we end up positing. 4. I fear there are too many things undefined. The cone works conceptually but not mathematically.

Please consider that y1 and y2 are defined as working extremums through a non classical logical system but it cannot be disclosed here. Would it change something ? If i understand correctly, modeling this would produce a totally abstract system. Exploring this part of mathematic for a potential application was necessary before continuing my work. Is there a mathematical working consensus to represent "the futur field of possibilities" ? If yes, is it linear or nonlinear ?