Help Calculating Adjusted Probability for Increased Yardage Target
Hey all! I'm working on some sports analytics and would love some help from those familiar with probability models.
I have a player with a 77.84% probability of achieving 24.5 yards in a game. I'm trying to estimate what his probability might be if the target were raised to 46.5 yards.
I understand there's usually a drop in probability as the target increases, but l'm looking for the most realistic way to estimate this change. I've heard about using linear adjustments, but l'd like something more accurate-maybe an exponential decay or a method that considers a gentler drop-off, as performance probabilities don't always decrease linearly.
What would be the best way to approach this calculation? If there are any resources, formulas, or even Google Sheets tricks you'd recommend, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks!
Crawford5002
Answer
- The questioner was satisfied with and accepted the answer, or
- The answer was evaluated as being 100% correct by the judge.
1 Attachment
Mathe
- answered
- 875 views
- $20.00
Related Questions
- How do you calculate per 1,000? And how do you compensate for additional variables?
- What are the odds of at least k same outcomes in n independent trials, each with x equally likely outcomes?
- Operational research : queueing theory
- Random Walk on Cube
- Probability
- Weighted Coin, Probability Question
- Convergence in probability and uniform integrability implies convergence in Lp
- Car accidents and the Poisson distribution
I can take this question but it will need a discussion. The best solution depends on the data available.
Unfortunately, the only data I have is what’s listed, as I scrape it directly from a website.