Help Calculating Adjusted Probability for Increased Yardage Target
Hey all! I'm working on some sports analytics and would love some help from those familiar with probability models.
I have a player with a 77.84% probability of achieving 24.5 yards in a game. I'm trying to estimate what his probability might be if the target were raised to 46.5 yards.
I understand there's usually a drop in probability as the target increases, but l'm looking for the most realistic way to estimate this change. I've heard about using linear adjustments, but l'd like something more accurate-maybe an exponential decay or a method that considers a gentler drop-off, as performance probabilities don't always decrease linearly.
What would be the best way to approach this calculation? If there are any resources, formulas, or even Google Sheets tricks you'd recommend, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks!
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Mathe
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I can take this question but it will need a discussion. The best solution depends on the data available.
Unfortunately, the only data I have is what’s listed, as I scrape it directly from a website.