Help Calculating Adjusted Probability for Increased Yardage Target
Hey all! I'm working on some sports analytics and would love some help from those familiar with probability models.
I have a player with a 77.84% probability of achieving 24.5 yards in a game. I'm trying to estimate what his probability might be if the target were raised to 46.5 yards.
I understand there's usually a drop in probability as the target increases, but l'm looking for the most realistic way to estimate this change. I've heard about using linear adjustments, but l'd like something more accurate-maybe an exponential decay or a method that considers a gentler drop-off, as performance probabilities don't always decrease linearly.
What would be the best way to approach this calculation? If there are any resources, formulas, or even Google Sheets tricks you'd recommend, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks!
Answer
- The questioner was satisfied with and accepted the answer, or
- The answer was evaluated as being 100% correct by the judge.
1 Attachment
Mathe
- answered
- 231 views
- $20.00
Related Questions
- Help with statistics
- Probability question, joint probability distribution
- Calculating P values from data.
- applied probability
- How do you calculate per 1,000? And how do you compensate for additional variables?
- Trajectory detection in noise - the probability of at least one random point being within epsilon distance of the trajectory?
- foundations of probability
- Compute the cumulative density function of X
I can take this question but it will need a discussion. The best solution depends on the data available.
Unfortunately, the only data I have is what’s listed, as I scrape it directly from a website.