# CLT and probability

•An average proportion of 48% of supporters

•An standard error ( ˆσ /sqrt n) of 3.1

•A p-value of 0.005 (approximately)

Assume you can use the CLT because the sample size is large enough. Answer true or false and explain your answer.

(a) If the null hypothesis is right, there is a 0.5% chance of observing a value equal to or larger than 48%.

(b) The probability of the null hypothesis given the data is 0.5%.

## Answer

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