In a city with one hundred taxis, 1 is blue and 99 are green. A witness observes a hit-and-run by a taxi at night and recalls that the taxi was blue, so the police arrest the blue taxi driver who was on duty that night. The driver proclaims his innocence and hires you to defend him in court. You hire a scientist to test the witness’ ability to distinguish blue and green taxis under conditions similar to the night of accident. The data suggests that the witness sees blue cars as blue 99% of the time and green cars as blue 2% of the time. Write a speech for the jury to give them reasonable doubt about your client’s guilt. Your speech should not be longer than a page. Keep in mind that most jurors have not taken a probability course, so maybe you can use an illustration instead of just formula.


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