What are the odds of drawing the two tarot cards that I wanted, then reshuffling the pack, and drawing them both again straight away, in the same order?

There were two specific tarot cards in a 78 card pack that I wanted to draw. I drew two cards, and indeed was lucky enough to get the very two cards I had 'wanted'. Are the odds of drawing those 1 in 78 x 1 in 77 = 1 in 6,006? What then are the odds of putting them back in the pack, shuffling the pack and drawing them again the very next time, in the same order, again 'wanting' those exact same two cards again, so that the two draws are somehow linked rather than random? Is that 1 in 6,006*6,006 = 1 in 36,072,036? Or is there a *2 for drawing the pair in the same order? = 1 in 72,144,072?

or is it:

(1 in 78)*(1 in 77) + (1 in 78)*(1 in 77) * 2 = 1 in 24,024


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Amas Amas
  • Thanks so much, One additional question - I drew the cards the very next time after having drawn the previous time, if that makes sense. So if one was to add a probability of that, meaning I would want them to be drawn consecutively, and not after a whole loads of intermediate draws, would that mean multiplying by a factor of 2 again?

    • Amas Amas

      The probability calculated above assumes we are only considering two draws of two cards, typically this best represents consecutive draws. If you are instead considering the probability of drawing the same two cards with intermediate draws in between, then that would be a separate event.

  • Yes two consecutive draws. Thanks

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