$please use statistics to explain spooky phenomenon$

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$please use statistics to explain spooky phenomenon$

I experienced a lot of inexplicable phenomena in our house. Im a pragmatic person though and always try to think of a "reasonable" explanation for things- many of which i cant.

unfortunately it creates a situation where sometimes very normal occurrences feel spooky simply because im primed for it.

please help me find the statistical likelihood of this happening.

I have ADHD, was on a cleaning spree and had been in every single one of the 23 rooms in our house when i realize i'd lost my ADHD medication bottle.

I am a creature of habit when it comes to things that i depend on so short of accidentally throwing it out a window or dropping it in a shoe it was most likely in one of four rooms. I spent HOURS looking in those rooms.

Finally I gave up and sat down to have a good cry. Then I absent mindedly picked up a 6 sided die and said aloud "roll a 2 if it's in the bedroom or 6 in the kitchen". i rolled a 6 and was slightly amused that I'd rolled a 6 at all.

I then said "roll a 6 if it's on the ground in the kitchen ".

i then rolled a 6 again.

at that point i was just annoyed because i'd crawled around on my belly three times in the kitchen with a flashlight and headlamp. there isn't even anything to look under i was just THAT frantic.

cute coincidence that i rolled a 6 twice in a row. whatever.

my husband came him and woke me up a bit later and said he found it sitting in the kitchen floor, completely unobstructed, in plain view.

is this a question that statistics can help me understand?

i don't understand what variables are important to understanding the likelihood of me assigning these numbers and them being correct.

it probably feels spooky but really is just a probability question, right?

Statistics

Throughaglassdarkly

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Alessandro Iraci

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Well, coincidences happen, it's normal. Think about how many bizarre coincidences *did not happen*: among the thousands of them, some are bound to happen, by pure chance. Don't worry about it.

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Alessandro Iraci

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Well, coincidences happen, it's normal. Think about how many bizarre coincidences *did not happen*: among the thousands of them, some are bound to happen, by pure chance. Don't worry about it.

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I will try to explain what happened in simple terms that could be understood by someone with little or no background in statistics.

The chances of getting two sixes in a row is \[\frac{1}{6}\times \frac{1}{6}=\frac{1}{36}.\] Which means if you roll a die 36 times on average you will get two sixes only once. This is probably why you think it was a "spooky phenomenon", because it does not sound very likely.

However, I do not think it is spooky for two reasons:

1- Coincidences happen and sometimes you can just simply get lucky.

2- This is the more important one. Psychologically we do not keep track of the coincidences that do not happen, and we only get surprised when they happen. For instance, you may have a large number of friends or family members whose birthday is different than your, but if someone you meet has the same birthday as your it may sound like an amazing coincidence, while on average one of every 365 people you meet will have the same birthdate as you. Meeting 365 people over the span of a few years is not out of ordinary, while in certain circumstances meeting someone with the same birthday may sound like a miracle.

If one interacts with 182 people (friends, relatives, coworkers, … ), let’s call them “friends”, then not having a friend with the same birthdate is as likely as has having one with the same birthdate, but the latter seems more interesting and less likely for the average person who does not calculate the probability such events.

Also note that if you role a die twice, then probability of getting (2,3) is the same as probability of getting (6,6), but the latter event sounds more surprising for psychological reasons. Imagine the number of time one may have roled (2,3), (1,4), (1,5), $\dots$ but they may not even recall them because they did not preceive it interesting or unlikely, but one usually remembers more events where they roled (6,6).

I believe what happened is just a coincidence that may sound spooky, but it is NOT.

Erdos

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Erdos

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Leave comment if you need any clarification.
Erdos

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This took me more than 30 minutes to answer. Please consider offering higher bounties for you future posts.

$please use statistics to explain spooky phenomenon$

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