Assess team win rate by combining individual win rates?

Suppose I have 5 players on each team in a game where each player selects a character (League of legends, Valorant, etc.).

I am considering the overall win rates of the characters, and the unique win rate attached to the player is not considered (i.e some players focus on using X character, so their win rate may be higher with this specific character, I am ignoring this, I am using the win rate of a character across all games played in a given season).

Each character has been played (in a game that has matches consisting of 2 teams formed by 5 players each, selected at random) anywhere from at least 4,000 to even 60,000 times in a given patch (lets just use season for simplicity).

Upon entry, team A may have overall individual character win rates (calculated across all matches played from and up to a certain point) of [40%, 50%, 55%, 50%, 60%] and team B may have individual win rates of [50%, 45%, 60%, 40%, 65%] for each character (not player) respectively.

Is it naïve to just average the win rates and consider that the team win rate, or is there a more robust method of doing this?

Despite all the characters having 4000+ games, some may have only around 4000, some may have 8000, some may have even more depending on popularity, so I imagine there may need to be sort of weighting, but I am not sure if 4000+ games is enough to disregard the need for a weighting system (as opposed to a basketball player playing less than 20 games a season and then 70 games the next, clearly weighting there may be more important).

My goal is to determine a predicted win rate for each team given the win rates of each character selected.

I can come up with everything, I am just trying to figure out that last key data point (predicted team win rate), it seems almost too easy to just average the 5 win rates, or maybe I am just overthinking it =)

Thanks!

  • This is not my area of expertise, but your bounty seems a bit low.

  • Increased it.

Answer

Answers can be viewed only if
  1. The questioner was satisfied and accepted the answer, or
  2. The answer was disputed, but the judge evaluated it as 100% correct.
View the answer
The answer is accepted.